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Racial Makeup of Presidential Coalitions
Submitted by NAD on Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:08
We've been blogging about how campaigns see and use race (and reach out or don't reach out) to different racial groups. It's helpful to see how each presidential candidate can win through a breakdown of the percentages of three groups - White, Black, and Latino - that each must carry.
As you can see, and as you probably expect, the GOP candidate, Romney can expect a much larger percentage of White votes and a much smaller percentage of African American and Latino votes. Together whites, blacks and Latinos make up over 90 percent of the population, per 2011 census estimates. The remainder is comprised of other racial groups that are so infrequently polled in national surveys that it is difficult to track them. We would love to see, though, a tracking of Asian-American voting preferences, but it isn't likely to happen in this election cycle.
The political analysis site TalkingPointsMemo.com suggests that, as we have shown, Romney and the GOP in general are in trouble demographically, given the growth of the Latino population (and, we would add, their so-far less than effective efforts to reach out to Latinos). From TPM:
White voters have leaned increasingly Republican in recent elections, although still not nearly as overwhelmingly as blacks and Latinos lean Democratic. Whites broke for then-President Bush at a 58 percent clip in 2004, according to exit polling, while 41 percent went for Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). Obama narrowed the gap a little, winning 43 percent of white voters and holding Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to 55 percent in 2008, according to exit polling.
Team Romney has set a target of 61 percent of the white vote, according to reporting by Ron Brownstein. It won’t be easy.
“If he reaches 61 percent among whites, he would equal the best performance ever for a Republican presidential challenger with that group of voters: Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and George H.W. Bush in 1988 each won between 56 percent and 61 percent of white voters, according to polls at the time,” Brownstein reports.
While Republicans are making a push for Latino voters, they remain a small part of Romney’s support so far, despite a heavy emphasis on wooing Latino voters, with prime speaking slots in Tampa and a focus on the party’s pitch to that segment of the voting bloc.
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