The growing consensus is, both, according to this Miami Herald story.

You'll see a lot of headlines like this over the next year and four months. It is silly when you think about it: in a close election ANY group can swing an election, from Hispanics, to single parents under thirty, to firefighters, to vegetarians. But a combination of factors shows that President Obama understands that without the Hispanic/Latino vote, he is sunk.

Conventional wisdom says a racist won't vote for a person of color. But this election may end up turning convention on its head.

A new AP-Yahoo poll suggests that Obama's race could cost him 2.5 percentage points - more than the final difference between the candidates in 2004. And it's not just Republicans.